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**Probabilistic Forecasting Planning**

**Attendees:**

**Agenda:**
* introductions
* @Svea gives overview of refactor state and next steps
* all to discuss work items, ways of working (e.g., joint stand-ups)
* agree next steps



**Refactor Idea**
* Instead of computing predicition intervals within the predict function we will separate stand-alone functions to predict intervals and to predict quantiles.
* Currently base class refactor is (hopefully almost done)


**TODOs**

sooner: 
* Refactor Inheriting Classes
    * List of Inheriting Classes that have probabilistic capabilities
        * based on tag (maybe not always correct)
        * tell by looking at _pred() fucntion
        * testing predict() with pred_int = true
        * use the test `test_all_forecasters/test_predict_pred_interval` (original or modify to "catch" the estimators)
        
    * Refactoring guideline
        * Must: implement `predict_quantiles()`
        * Must remove pred_int argument from `_predict()` function
        * Maybe: implement `predict_interval()` (if defaulting to predict_quantiles is inefficient)
* Update Extension Guideline
* Upadte Tutorial
* Impelement prediction intervals for forecasters that don't support probabilistic forecasting yet (e.g. Naive forecaster)
* Improve tests (so far only test stabs)

later: 
* Add model agnostic default strategy in base class
* Think of how user can decide which stratgy to use

todo: 
    tests (test all forecasters, maybe also look at Svea's stab)
    check which forecaster needs refactor
    
    
    
