# Data Analytics on Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emission for Prince Edward Island (PEI) household

## Introduction
The Government of PEI expects to become the first Canadian province with net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. As the third largest source of greenhouse emissions, **households** have attracted many attentions from PEI Government. However, there is **no complete statistics or report** for PEI government to make evidence-based policies, especially rental units.


Accordingly, PEI Government expects me to explore the currant energy usage and carbon emissions from PEI rental household, and how much GHG emissions can be cut down, and how much GHG emissions can be cut down while electrifying PEI household energy usage.

## Data Analytic Workflow

1. Understand the population and number of dwellings in PEI, and making a prediction for both in 2030. Generally, GHG emissions are positively related to number of populations
2. Understand the rental situation in PEI
3. Explore energy usage and carbon emissions from PEI households
4. Figure out which energy source is the main Greenhouse contribution

## Dataset
the datasets I used for this project is from online public resources.

**Statistic Canada**

**National Resource Canada**

## Analysis

### Section 1-1 - PEI population and prediction by 2030


Figure 1 (Data Source: Prince Edward Island Statistics Bureau & Department of Finance)

From above figure we can know that the population growth from **2016 to 2021 is much more significant than before**. In addition, the increased population in PEI is stable recently (Figure 1).

The main reason was the **immigrant policy**.

The average annual population growth rate in these six years is about 2.16%. (Table 1)


Table 1 (Figure Source: Prince Edward Island Statistics Bureau & Department of Finance)

Because the immigrant policy will be continuous, I will use the figure, 2.16% to predict the population by 2030. In 2021, the population was 164318. If the population will grow by 2.16% each year, the population **by 2030 will be 199,165**.

### Section 1-2 - PEI Dwellings Prediction

Because the census research only done by Statistic Canada each five year, I only can get the number of total private dwellings in 2016 and 2021. The percentage of private dwellings change from 2016 to 2021 was 5.4%, and the annual growth in these five years was 1.08%. Therefore, based on this figure, I predicted the number of private dwellings in PEI by 2030 will be 82540.

Note: the population from Statistics Canada is different from PEI government. I think provincial one will be more trustable, so I take the data offered by PEI government.


Table 2: Statistics Canada

### Step 2: PEI rental situation

Owing to understand the carbon emissions from PEI rental units. I need to understand the rental situation in PEI first.

Based on the data from the Provincial Government and Statisitc Canada. I found


and I got the for long-term renting from PEI housing data and trends


Next, I have a brief discussion of PEI long-term and short-term renting situation



However, because of data limitation, I am going to calculate carbon emissions of "Total" household instead of rental units.

### Step 3: GHG Emission from Residential Buildings
The following graph showed the change of GHG emissions from PEI residential places in the past two decades, from 1999 to 2019.

The unit for GHG emissions is CO2 equivalent, which is a criterion to evaluate the global warming potential (GWP) of different greenhouse gases.


Figure 2 (Data Source: Canada's Official Greenhouse Gas Inventory)

Another dataset from Natural Resources Canada illustrated the similar trend.

Figure 3 (Data Source: Natural Resources Canada)

**Key finding**, according to Figure 2 and Figure 3.

1. From 2006 to 2011, the amount of GHG emissions from house increased.
2. From 2011 to 2015, the amount of GHG emissions from houses decreased significantly.
3. After 2015, there was no obvious change in the amount of GHG emissions from houses.

Figure 4 (Data Source: Natural Resources Canada)

*Observation 1*

From Figure 2, 3, and 4, we can see that the GHG emission of PEI residential sectors is in high correlation to the total energy use. Therefore, I infer the change of GHG emissions of PEI residential sectors is highly related to their energy usage. According to Figure 1, the population grew from around 138000 in 2006 to about 145000 in 2011. Therefore, **I speculate the increased population growth is the reason of the increased energy usage from 2011 to 2015.**

*Observation 2*

According to Figure 1, the population change from 2011 to 2015 is **stable**, but the energy usage decreased significantly, which can be seen in Figure 4. What is the reason?


Figure 5 (Data Source: Natural Resources Canada)
From Figure 5, we can see that the decreased of total energy has an almost same trend as that of heating oil. Therefore, **I infer that the main reason of decreased energy usage from 2011 to is the reduction of heating oil usage**. The possible reason of this is the rise of heating oil prices. According to the data from Statistics Canada, the heating oil prices were in a plateau from 2011 to 2014. This can be seen in the rex box in Figure 6.


Figure 6 (Data Source: Statistics Canada)

Figure 7 (Data Source: Natural Resources Canada)

Additionally, due to the increase of heating oil prices from 2011 to 2014, the usage of wood and electricity to generate heat increased. The change can be seen in the rex box in the Figure 7.

*Observation 3*

According to the figure 1 and observation 1, the increased population will increase the energy usage as well as GHG emissions from residential sectors. However, the argument is not supported by Figure 2, 3, 4, and 5. In these figures, we can see that both GHG emissions and total energy usage were stable from 2015 to 2018. According to the orange box in Figure 7, we also can know that the percentage of using different energy resources did not change in that period. Therefore, **my reasonable inference is the building energy efficiency was improved during that period**. In other words, the same energy usage can be offered to more people.

This inference can be proved by the province's 2016-2017 energy strategy. In that document, PEI offered many instructions of improving building efficiency, such that reducing air leaks can keep a home at a comfortable temperature during both the summer and winter (Dunsky Energy Consulting, 2016). Because more and more immigrants will come to PEI and energy requirements are supposed to increase. Therefore, PEI government has started to release their residential energy efficiency policies since 2016.

#### Brief Conclusion
• increased population from 2006 to 2011 increase energy usage and residential GHG emissions
• From 2011 to 2015, the Raised oil prices decreased islanders’ willingness to use heating oil, and they shifted to wood or electricity for house heating.
• After 2015, increasing building efficiency can decrease energy usage as well ss GHG emissions.

### Step 4: GHG Emission from Residential Buildings Due to Heating Oil
Figure 8 (Data Source: Natural Resources Canada)
Figure 9 (Data Source: Natural Resources Canada)

From above two figures we can know that **the major purpose of energy usage** is heating, whether space heating or water heating, and they contributed the majority of GHG emissions from residential sectors.

There are many methods to heat the houses, including heating oil, natural gas, coal and propane, wood and electricity. Which one is the main contributor to these GHG emissions?


Figure 10 (Data Source: Natural Resources Canada)

From Figure 10 below we can know **the usage of heating oil is the culprit of GHG emissions from houses**, and the percentage is around 75% for space heating and 92% for water heating in 2018, the latest year I could get complete data information.

While looking at the data for the past two decades, **the percentage of GHG emissions from heating oil is around 80% from 2000 to 2018** with slightly decreasing since 2011.

Figure 11 (Data Source: Natural Resources Canada)

**Now, I can prove my assumption that I made before analysis. The biggest GHG emissions contributors from residential sectors is heating oil.**

Based on Figure 10, I can assume that replacing heating oil system by electronic one can reduce 80% GHG emissions from residential sectors in PEI. The goal of residential GHG emissions should be reduced is 189.748 kt of CO2eq.

## Conclusion

* Heating oil is the major contribution of carbon emission from PEI household.
* Increased population will generally increase energy usage and residential GHG emissions
* Rising oil prices decreased islanders’ willingness to use heating oil, and they shifted to wood or electricity for house heating.
* Increasing building efficiency can decrease energy usage as well ss GHG emissions.

## Further Step

I am going to know how electrification of heating system in PEI household can cut down the carbon emissions.