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title: Expectation values and ergodicity

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# Expectation values and ergodicity

See these links for discussion of use of ergodic models (i.e. expected values as predictors of outcomes for individuals) in economics:
* [Ergodicity - the Biggest Mistake in Economics?](https://physicsoffinance.blogspot.com/2012/11/ergodicity-biggest-mistake-in-economics.html) - 'the usual ensemble averages used to compute "expected" returns in finance are, in many cases, simply inappropriate to making decisions in the real world.'
* [Why expected value is a mistake](https://physicsoffinance.blogspot.com/2012/11/why-expected-value-is-mistake.html).
* [Why time matters](https://physicsoffinance.blogspot.com/2012/11/why-time-matters.html).
* [Thinking again about time](https://physicsoffinance.blogspot.com/2013/07/thinking-again-about-time.html).
* [Non-ergodic economics, expected utility and the Kelly criterion](https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2012/04/21/non-ergodic-economics-expected-utility-and-the-kelly-criterion/).
* [A Big Little Idea Called Ergodicity (Or The Ultimate Guide to Russian Roulette)](https://taylorpearson.me/ergodicity/).
* [Ergodicity economics: a primer](https://jasoncollins.blog/2020/01/22/ergodicity-economics-a-primer/).