# Throwback Title Hunt

CFB, since 1992 at least, has sought to avoid a split title by either having a no questions asked four team playoff, or a two-team playoff where #1 and #2 meet in the national title game. From 1992 to 1997 this wasn't always possible as the Big Ten and Pac-10 weren't signatories to both the Bowl Alliance and Bowl Coalition, so split titles were still possible (see 1997 Michigan and Nebraska), but in general, it did work more often than not.

What's fun for someone like me isn't inherently seeing how the current system plays out, but seeing how things would shape up this year if we'd have used prior methods of crowing a champion.

I'm going to do this through a few means. First of all, I'm going to set the rest of the season as far as it needs to crown a national champion under various systems.

The spread I'll be using will be a [composite ranking](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTL-31X7CuMUsgExbEqk2sJz5TbNLtY8GPXaWE2YjZn1hNLdkOTz8XtNQwr4OXpkCEjBvmsASEYubNq/pubhtml?gid=1355073999&single=true) I've made using a combination of Sagarin, ESPN's FPI, Bill Connely's SP+, and TeamRankings.com which usually gives fairly good results. Games for this week could be done using just the Vegas spread, but for consistency's sake, I'll be using the composite I've made.

Implied win probabilities are done via [a point spread study](http://football.stassen.com/pointspread/) versus win probability. All win probabilites shown are ballpark estimates based on the chart.

## 1936 to 1960s/1970s: Bowl Games? With Title Implications? Why?

The AP poll from its inception from 1936 to the 1964 season wrapped up after the first week in December. In 1965 it released a post-bowl poll, but didn't for '66 and '67, before finally deciding to make a post-bowl poll permanent in 1968. The Coaches Poll did the same from its inception in 1950 to 1974. This meant that a team won a national championship before the bowl games took place. As weird as this sounds, bowl games were considered a tier above exhibition games but not the same as the rest of the season.

For 2019, something like this would be pretty straightforward. Instead of Selection Sunday being for a tournament selection, it would instead be the announcement of a national champion (or champions).

### Title Race

Rankings are current and parenthesis indicate how far back a team is to 1st place.

Rank | AP Poll | Coaches Poll
--|--|--
1 | LSU | LSU
2 | Ohio State (-30) | Ohio State (-29)
3 | Clemson (-51) | Clemson (-95)
4 | Georgia (-172) | Georgia (-183)
5 | Utah (-253) | Utah (-251)
6 | Oklahoma (-271) | Oklahoma (-283)
7 | Florida (-393) | Florida (-442)
8 | Baylor (-454) | Baylor (-460)

Florida is out of the title race altogether since Baylor would pass them with a conference title game victory and Oklahoma is already ahead. With everyone else in play, our league championship games become even more high stakes than they already were.

League | Team 1 | Team 2 | Tm1 Spread | Implied Win Prob
---|---|---|---|---
SEC | #1 LSU | #4 Georgia | -3.2 | ~57%
Big Ten | #2 Ohio State | #10 Wisconsin | -13.7 | ~82%
Big XII | #6 Oklahoma | #8 Baylor | -6.4 | ~70%
ACC | #3 Clemson | #22 Virginia | -22.9 | ~94%
Pac-12 | #5 Utah | #13 Oregon | -2.8 | ~55%

Although LSU is #1, Ohio State is nipping at their heels only 30 points behind. LSU probably is not in total control of their destiny in this scenario, as a blowout Ohio State win could vault the Buckeyes above the Tigers, even with a Tigers win.

Clemson's championship probability hinges on both Ohio State and LSU losing their league title games, as well as obviously winning their league championship game against Virginia. With the implied point spreads and win probabilty data, this has about a 7% chance of happening, so not likely but still possible.

Georgia being at the #4 slot has a lot of interesting implications. The teams behind them would have opponents further down in the rankings than them, and with the #1 team being the one they have to beat, the other behind them could not equal it in terms of a recent quality win. Essentially, all teams below Georgia would be eliminated from national title contention.

While all this does make for a _much, much, much_ more interesting Saturday, it leaves quite a lot to be desired from a big picture point of view. Specifically, with the highest probability result being three undefeated teams, it likely means a split title. As well as that, Clemson too would likely be able to have a few major selectors outside the major polls in their corner as well.

Needless to say, there's a reason both polls decided to expand to include bowl results.

**Most Likely Champion:** LSU

**Would There Likely Be A Split Champion?:** absolutely

## 1970s to 1991, Okay We Do Bowls Now, Please Stop Asking Us To Do More Shit

It seems logical to assume we'd be less likely to see a split champion with one more result against a decent team factored in. Naturally, the first year both polls released after bowls, there was a split championship (USC and Alabama in 1974).

Still, it was better considering it at least took the entire year into account. However, it does mean that getting a #1 vs. #2 was extremely reliant on conference bowl tie ins -- if you were in a conference.

Historically, bowl tie-ins looked like this. This does not represent one specific year, but an amalgam of that period in the sport

Bowl | Bid #1 | Bid #2 | Alternate
---|---|---|---
Rose Bowl | Big Ten #1 | Pac-10 #1 |
Sugar Bowl | SEC #1 | Big Eight/SWC #2 | At-Large (higher than #11)
Orange Bowl | Big Eight #1 | At-Large (higher than #13)
Cotton Bowl | Southwest #1 | At-Large | Notre Dame (if #12 or higher)
Fiesta Bowl | At-Large | At-Large | Any #2
Citrus Bowl | ACC #1 | At-Large (southern pref.) |
Gator Bowl | SEC/ACC | At-Large (non-southern)
Holiday Bowl | WAC #1 | At-Large (major fanbase pref.)
Peach Bowl | ACC/SEC | Big Ten/Big East/northern independent
Hall of Fame (Outback) Bowl | SEC/ACC | At-Large (non-southern)
Sun Bowl | SWC/SEC | At-Large

Mapping this onto the modern landscape is a bit of a challenge but not too much of one. We can substitute the Mountain West for the old WAC, but for title implications, we can sorta split the Big XII into two; the top Texas team goes to the Cotton Bowl, while the top team from the rest of the league goes to the Orange Bowl.

### Title Race

Assuming all favorites win, the poll that comes out after the conference title games would look something like this.

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Utah
6. Georgia
7. Florida
8. Alabama
9. Baylor
10. Auburn
11. Penn State
12. Notre Dame
13. Wisconsin
14. Minnesota
15. Oregon

Using that, our 2019 bowls using the 70s and 80s alignments would look something like this.

Bowl | Team 1 | Team 2
---|---|---
Rose Bowl | #2 Ohio State | #5 Utah
Sugar Bowl | #1 LSU | #11 Penn State
Citrus Bowl | #3 Clemson | #7 Florida
Orange Bowl | #4 Oklahoma | #6 Georgia
Cotton Bowl | #9 Baylor | #12 Notre Dame
Fiesta Bowl | #16 Memphis | #15 Oregon
Gator Bowl | #8 Alabama | #13 Wisconsin
Outback Bowl | #10 Auburn | #14 Minnesota
Peach Bowl | #25(?) Virginia | #17(?) Michigan
Sun Bowl | SMU | #18(?) Iowa
Holiday Bowl | #19(?) Boise State | #24(?) USC

January 2nd's final ranking would be extremely interesting if everyone wins out. LSU has a much easier opponent but Ohio State has much more ability to impress via style points. Clemson playing Florida is also higher ranked than LSU's opponent. Oklahoma, our Big XII champion, is also facing a very good Georgia team. With Florida at #7 and having losses to both LSU and Georgia, they would likely be eliminated from title contention, as well as all teams below them.

With that in mind, our only real championship contenders would be participating in these games.

Favored | Opponent | Spread | Implied Win Prob
---|---|---|---
#1 LSU | #11 Penn State | -7.2 | ~72%
#2 Ohio State | #5 Utah | -14.3 | ~85%
#3 Clemson | #7 Florida | -8.8 | ~73%
#4 Oklahoma | #6 Georgia | +0.1 | ~50%

Our spread amounts mean Ohio State would likely impress far more than LSU would in their bowl game, and thus, would be my pick to win the national title.

**Most Likely Champion**: Ohio State

**Would There Likely Be A Split Champion?:** more likely than not

## 1992-1994: pls no big ten pac-10 pls no big ten pac-10

After Georgia Tech and Colorado's split title in 1990 and Washington and Miami's split title in 1991, the powers that be decided to write on a napkin what they were gonna do about it.

Instead of just having the bowls set according to whatever conference lucked or negotiated into which tie-in, the major conferences* and the major bowls* decided to pool together and force a #1 vs. #2 matchup if they could. This was called the Bowl Coaltion, something that sounds vaguely like it should have first strike capability.

This, and its successor, the Bowl Alliance, had a major issue though: the Big Ten and the Pac-10, as well as the Rose Bowl, did not like the idea of sending their champions away or forgoing their traditional matchup. Therefore, they weren't part of either, and the split championship was still possible.

### Title Race

2019 if run under this system would've seen the Big Ten/Pac-10 problem. Ohio State at #2 is going to throw a wrench in our "match the teams up if #1 vs. #2" philosophy.

Under this system, we have three conferences (SEC, Big XII, and ACC) that will send their champions to major bowls, and six bowls to send them to. However, Ohio State would need to lose to Wisconsin to have a real shot at forcing a #1 vs. #2 matchup.

There were a few changes to the bowl bids. The ACC did not seem to have a set top end bid, but twice they sent FSU to the Orange and once to the Sugar (against Florida). Therefore, the ACC is treated as an at-large.

These would be our bowl games. Rankings are the same as the hypothetical one above in the prior section. We're only taking into account "tier 1" Bowl Coalition bowls, plus the Rose Bowl.

Bowl | Team 1 | Team 2
---|---|---
Rose Bowl | #2 Ohio State | #5 Utah
Sugar Bowl | #1 LSU | #3 Clemson
Cotton Bowl | #9 Baylor | #6 Georgia
Orange Bowl | #4 Oklahoma | #7 Florida
Fiesta Bowl | #8 Alabama | #10 Penn State

Again, we look at the bowl matchups with title implications, which are the Rose, Sugar, and Orange Bowls.

Team | Opponent | Spread | Implied Win Prob
---|---|---|---
#2 Ohio State | #5 Utah | -14.3 | ~85%
#1 LSU | #3 Clemson | +1.4 | ~48%
#4 Oklahoma | #7 Florida | -1.1 | ~51%

Ohio State seems to really have the inside track here, as LSU would actually be a 1.5 point underdog or so according to the composite rating. Oklahoma would need quite a lot to break their way and a massive blowout to even be in consideration.

**Most Likely Champion**: Ohio State

**Would There Likely Be A Split Champion?:** Ohio State would probably wrap up either one of the AP or Coaches title, but either Clemson or LSU with a win would likely to win the other poll championship. The answer is an almost definite yes in that case.

## 1995-1997: Look! Look! We Did The Same Thing Again, But With Style

The difference between the earlier Bowl Coalition, and the Bowl Alliance, is mostly nothing. It still didn't include the Big Ten champion or Pac-10 champion, nor mid-majors. Instead, changes were mostly cosmetic or led by the leagues themselves. The Bowl Alliance ditched everything that wasn't a tier one bowl (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar), and ensured that the top two teams in the polls (hopefully #1 and #2...hopefully) from the Alliance conferences met in a "title" game that had the distinct possibility of not being a title game.

With the Big Eight and SWC merging to form the Big XII and the Big XII sending their champion to the Fiesta Bowl instead of either the Orange or Cotton Bowls. Also, teams from the Pac-10 or Big Ten _could_ get a bid to one of the bowls, but only if they weren't the champion.

The Big East sent their champion to the Orange Bowl and the ACC is a sort of free agent able to be sent anywhere.

### Title Race

Gonna be a nice copy and paste situation here. Our favorites have won, and our poll looks the same as it did in a prior section. The only difference is where the teams are sent.

Bowl | Team 1 | Team 2
---|---|---
Rose Bowl | #2 Ohio State | #5 Utah
Fiesta Bowl | #1 LSU | #3 Clemson
Orange Bowl | #4 Oklahoma | #7 Florida
Sugar Bowl | #6 Georgia | #9 Baylor

The Fiesta Bowl, if we're magically bringing back the alliance for 2019 after a 22 year rest, will be the host of our "championship" game.

Only three teams would have a realistic shot at a national championship with #1 LSU playing #3 Clemson and Ohio State playing against #5 Utah. We've already rehearsed this in the Bowl Coalition scenario with spreads and win probabilities, so it's Ohio State very likely to win at least one of the poll titles, with LSU and Clemson squabbling over another one of the poll titles.

**Most Likely Champion**: Ohio State

**Would There Likely Be A Split Champion?:** In two of the three seasons this system existed, there was a split champion. There is no reason to think that a split championship would not occur if Ohio State won the Rose Bowl.

## 1998-2013: The BCS, aka ooooh #1 vs #2 shiny

For the vast majority of this sub, this is the national championship system you remember growing up with. The rules were fairly simple now that the Big Ten and Pac-10 were in; the top two teams in the BCS standings met in a national championship game, while the four major bowl games (Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Orange) would retain the bids they wanted. The BCS's selection system is as follows

- No more than two teams from any conference can get a BCS bowl bid.
- BCS conference champions (ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, Big East, SEC, Pac-10) were granted an automatic bid.
- Teams from outside needed to be either in the top 12 of the BCS standings or top 16 and better than one of the BCS conference champions
- The at-large teams are chosen from a pool of schools that were both in the top 14 of the standings and had 9+ wins. If enough teams are not filled by the top 14, then four more teams would be added until enough teams became available.

As some of you might notice, I'm using the 2006-2013 procedure for this scenario, since prior rules were much harsher and had two less bids available.

Bowl bids themselves changed. The ACC now sends their champion to the Orange Bowl, and since the Big East doesn't exist anymore, that bid is converted to an at-large. The Big XII will still send their champion to the Fiesta Bowl.

### Title Race

Thanks to the twitter account @BCSKnowHow, we have an idea of how the BCS [would look heading into this final week](https://twitter.com/BCSKnowHow/status/1201302112396890113). If we assume all our favorites win, as we have through this whole exercise, then a simulated BCS heading into the bowls may look like this.

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Utah
6. Georgia
7. Florida
8. Penn State
9. Baylor
10. Alabama
11. Auburn
12. Wisconsin
13. Notre Dame
14. Memphis
15. Oregon
16. Michigan

With our rules in place and our bowl bids set, our 2019-20 BCS looks like this.

Bowl | Team 1 | Team 2
---|---|---
National Championship | #1 Ohio State | #2 LSU
Orange Bowl | #3 Clemson | #14 Memphis
Fiesta Bowl | #4 Oklahoma | #15 Oregon
Sugar Bowl | #6 Georgia | #9 Baylor
Rose Bowl | #5 Utah | #8 Penn State

According to our composite, Ohio State would be favored by a little over 7 points against LSU. We'll assume for brevity that they win the title game. With Clemson being a 16 point or so favorite over Memphis, Clemson would wrap up an undefeated season unless Memphis comes out like 2017 UCF. However, if the most probable scenario happens, we'll have two undefeated power conference champions.

**Most Likely Champion**: Ohio State

**Would There Likely Be A Split Champion?:** Clemson would almost certainly gain some minor selectors, enough for them to be printed in the NCAA's record book as a national champion similar to 2004 Auburn. However, Ohio State in this scenario would likely do like 2004 USC did; be voted by both the AP and Coaches as national champions and be the ones holding the crystal ball. Thus, while technically yes there would be, it is unlikely that Clemson would be recognized as co-equal with Ohio State in this scenario.

## Is Any of This Shit Better Than Now?

If your goal is to crown a champion? Well, duh, no it isn't.

If your goal is to argue about who the champion is? Yes, all of them are.

I don't know if there was really a point for me to make doing this. One could see it as showing people perhaps new to the sport that what we have now, as shit as it is, is quite a bit better than what we used to have. But, I also think there's a small but kinda noticable downside; the playoff is inherently less zany in a sport built upon zaniness.

Anyways, if you made it this far, thanks for reading. If you like it, great, and if you didn't, your honesty is probably needed but also soul-crushing.