# KateBets (October 26, 2019)

It's a spooky time of year. Kids in costumes that they think are good are going to houses where the adults are handing out candy they think is good. Is this an allegory for my betting plays? No, I just thought it'd be a good lead.

[I went 3-3 last week in betting](https://hackmd.io/@KatInTheHat77/rkRVAmWtH), bringing me to 19-12 on the year. Still above water in terms of making money, but man I really needed Rice to come through. This week though, I promise it'll be different.

_narrator: it wasn't_

**Appalachian State (-24.5) at South Alabama**

_Reason:_ Appalachian State absolutely demolished a Louisiana-Monroe team last week that even a team as good as Memphis had a fight with until the end. My preseason model was pretty bullish on the Mountaineers at the start of the year, placing them 25th overall; thus far, they've managed to live up to it. South Alabama, meanwhile, is 125th in yards per play and 84th in yards per play allowed. Their game against Troy was interesting with several unconverted goal line chances, but App State is going to be a whole 'nother level of test for them. I expect App State to cover and then some.

**Texas (PK) at TCU**

_Reason_: We need to get a couple things out of the way here. First of all, Texas did almost lose to Kansas, and gave up a whole ton of yards in the process. Yes, this is a Gary Patterson-led TCU defense, and yes, TCU beat Kansas 51-14 a few weeks ago. However, we also have to consider that Texas is both considerably more talented, not missing any major pieces, and will absolutely not be trying to lose after a massive letdown game against the Jayhawks. TCU is also 2-4 against the spread (Texas is 4-3 ATS), so it looks like a case where Texas gets a bounce back win.

**Georgia State (PK) vs. Troy**

_Reason_: Shawn Elliott's second team at GSU has already more than doubled his prior year's win total of 2 with a 5-2 mark this year. Most people remember the Tennessee win, but this team faltered afterwards, including an embarassing 57-10 loss at Western Michigan. Since their 2-2 start, they've won three straight games, including one over Army last week. Troy is 1-2 over its last 3, with the only win being against hapless South Alabama at home. From a bettors perspective, this looks juicy because Georgia State is both more efficent on offense and defense (in terms of yards per play) than Troy has been both this year and over the last three games. Even better, Georgia State is 4-1-2 against the spread this year, while Troy is 2-4. I like the Panthers to take their sixth win of the year at home.

**Oregon (-14) vs. Washington State**

_Reason:_ There are so, so many reasons to like this matchup for betting purposes. Oregon is 5th in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed; Washington State is coached by Mike Leach. Oregon is 20th in the nation in yards per play; Washington State's defense is 109th in yards per play allowed. The Ducks have been very consistent since the Auburn loss, while WSU aside from a win against Colorado last week has struggled since the UCLA loss. Did I mention that Washington State is 2-5 against the spread while Oregon is 4-3? No. Even better then. Take the Ducks and the points.

**Connecticut vs. Massachusetts (under 63)**

_Reason:_ What would happen if the hair in your sink drain came to life and started a college football team? You don't have to wonder anymore, because both of these teams are here and they're jeering that you keep making them do this. But, let's be real here, both of these teams are in the cellar of FBS in near every major statistical category. Offense, defense, you name it, they suck. So, why the under then? It comes down to math; both teams combined get in the redzone about 5 times a game, and allow their opponents about 10 redzone trips. If we say that everything goes perfectly and both teams are able to drive like their opponents have been this year _and_ that they score TD's in every red zone trip, we still only have a total of about 70 or so. Since that won't happen because both teams can't really do much on offense and won't have 100% of their red zone trips be touchdowns, the under looks like a very safe play here.