# MPNP In Comparison to other PNPs

###### tags: `Work` `Data Lab` `Immigration`

:::info
Notes comparing the MPNP to other PNPs across Canada
:::

# Key Questions

- If MPNP hits its upper limit, what is the bottleneck?
- Where is Express Entry heading? Why can't the common assessment / documentation requirements be met centrally?
- Of the candidates it invites to apply, MPNP nominates the _overwhelming_ majority. Is it worth the time and energy it takes to complete the multi-stage assessment process that follows? IRCC is going to do an admissability assessment regardless.

# Insights?

- IRCC continues to expand the scope and functionality of the federal intake and assessment process (Express Entry).
- The PNPs were designed to solve a problem that increasingly overlaps with the evolving federal system.
-

# Overview

## What is a PNP?

A PNP is a pathway to permanent residency designed and administered by a Canadian P/T.
Each P/T, with the exceptions of Quebec and Nunavut has its own PNP.
Broadly, they allow P/Ts to recruit, assess, and admit newcomers outside of the federal immigration system.
See [Canadim](https://www.canadim.com/immigrate/provincial-nominee-program/)'s overview for more details.

## What do they share in common?

#### bilaterally negotiated quotas

Each PNP is limited in the total number of immigrants it can admit by limits negotiated with but ultimately set by IRCC.

Since the launch of the Express Entry platform in 2015, PNP allocations have been divided between "base" allocations, which don't utilize Express Entry, and "enhanced" allocations, which do.

#### process

At a high-level, PNPs share a common process:
(1) a candidate applies,
(2) the P/T assesses the application,
(3) if the application passes the assessment, the P/T Provincial Nomination Certificate to the candidate,
(4) the candidate submits the Certificate to IRCC along with their application for permanent residency,
(5) IRCC reviews the results of the assessment and conducts admissability screening.

#### assessment framework

While assessment criteria and procedure varies between programs, assessments tend to share the general purpose of confirming that the applicant has basic competence in english or french, is in relatively good health, will not pose a danger to society, and will likely find suitable economic opportunity in the respective P/T.

#### streams

Each PNP has multiple 'streams' -- also called 'categories' or confusingly 'programs' -- which apply different assessment schemes to their respective applicants. While there is no standard naming convention for PNP streams, if you squint, you see that each one has one or more streams for "Skilled Workers" and one or more streams for Entrepreneurs or Investors.

Skilled Worker streams focus on assessing employability (education, work experience, connection to the P/T),
while Entrepreneur / Investor streams assess likelihood of success as a business owner, and require significant savings (amounts vary but are all in excess of 100k CAD).

#### express entry

At a glance, it seems like each PNP has some way of leveraging the federal Express Entry system, either with a specific stream or with a different assessment approach within a given stream.
In 2015, the federal government launched the Express Entry system for permanent residency applications.
It is a candidate-facing online portal for managing applications to the federal programs.
To submit a profile through Express Entry, candidates must be eligible for one of the three federal programs (FSW, FST, CEC).

## How do they vary in design?

#### recent graduate streams

Some PNPs have specific streams for recent graduates from foreign institutions (e.g. MPNP's International Education Stream or NL's International Graduate Category), while others don't (e.g. SK). These streams are designed to invite prospective newcomers _without work experience_, but with formal education that will set them up for success.

#### occupation-specific streams

Some have streams which target particular occupations (e.g. AB's Farm Stream or NS' Physician Stream).

#### application

Canadim lists three 'main types' of application process: (1) Expression of Interest, where candidates submit brief EOIs, on the basis of which some are invited to complete a full application; (2) Notification of Interest, where the program invites candidates to apply directly from the Express Entry candidate pool; (3) Direct application, where prospective candidates can complete and submit a full application without prior invitation. PNPs tend to use a mix of these processes depending on the respective stream to which the applicant wishes to apply.

# Trends

Numbers in this section are drawn from IRCC's 2017 [Evaluation of the Provincial Nominee Program](https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/reports-statistics/evaluations/provincial-nominee-program-2015.html#5-1).

:::warn
I am cautious with respect to the longitudinal numbers, since it is unclear in a number of places how the sample changes between time periods.
:::

There is some aggregate data on the Nova Scotia program available through Canada's awful [Open Data Portal](https://search.open.canada.ca/opendata/?_organization_limit=0&organization=cic&sort=metadata_modified+desc&search_text=Provincial+nominee+program&page=1), though it only includes nominees issued certs, not all applicants.

Actually, there's fine data about MPNP, it's just served by [immigrate manitoba](https://immigratemanitoba.com/data/) rather than any open data service.

## Does the PNP system still need to exist?

The first evaluation question in this report is 'is there a continuing need for the PNP?' which seems like a big deal. The authors answer that yes, the PNPs serve the essential purpose of allowing P/Ts to tailor some portion of their incoming immigrant population to the economic needs present in the P/T. Inherent too is the ability of less attractive P/Ts to nominate candidates who otherwise wouldn't qualify for federal programs.

## Processing Time

:::note
This is the first citation we have for the 6-month application processing 'service standard' for PNP.
If the standard is 6 months, and the average is 15, something seems fishy.
:::

As of 2015, processing time was _bad_ for PNPs overall. Only 48% of 2015 applications were processed within 6 months, though that represented a substantial jump from 2010, when a meager 28% were processed in the same window.

As mentioned above, each PNP currently has some formal synergistic alignment with Express Entry.
In general P/Ts will invite specific Express Entry candidates who haven't been admitted through a federal program to apply to their PNP. According to the report, PNP applications from EE candidates were processed much faster than those originating elsewhere. The numbers they cite are a bit oblique (15 month average for non-EE PNP applications, 80% of EE applications to PNPs processed within 4 months).

## Employment Outcomes

Overall PNs covered by this report had a high rate of success in the labour market. 92% of nominees reported employment or self-employment earnings in the year following their arrival. The MPNP exceeded this mark slightly (93%) and boasts a greater advantage with respect to longer term outcomes. 95% of MPNP nominees reported earnings as compared to 91% overall. PNs admitted between 2002 and 2014 were unlikely to receive social assistance. 1.7% received social assistance payments in the year following their admission, compared to 3.6% of FSWs admitted.

In every P/T but Ontario, PNP Primary Applicant (PA) average earnings rose with distance from their admission. In Manitoba, average earnings increased 11,000 from 30,000 to 41,000 (a roughly 37% increase). While this increase is high, it is notable that MPNP PAs had the second lowest average earnings in their first year following admission, less than half of Alberta's 71,000.

One area where MPNP performed notably poorly was in matching nominees to positions commensurate with their credentials and experience. At the time of the evaluation's survey, 77% of all responding PNs reported being in commensurate employment, while only 59% of MB PNs did the same. By this metric, MPNP had the lowest rate of skills matching among PNPs. This goes some distance toward explaining the low average earnings.

# The MPNP

## Broadly

- The very first PNP, still the highest volume
- MB receives a tiny fraction of immigrants admitted through federal programs (1% FSW, 1% CEC)
- It does a great job nominating candidates who are likely to find employment, though its nominees have a conspicuously low (the lowest) rate of employment in a commensurate position
- MB is one of three P/Ts with a PNP stream that doesn't require previous work experience

## Specifically

- Recent reports show that the MPNP performs really well with respect to processing time. The Skilled Worker in Manitoba stream averages 58 days for approved applications and 189 days for refused applications, while the Skilled Worker Overseas clocks in at 64 and 168 days respectively.
- The Business Investor program represents a tiny fraction of the MPNP's overall application pipeline (6 of the 6,275 2021 nominations were awarded in this category) so I'm going to ignore it.
- Refusal rates for the three main streams (Skilled Workers in MB, Skilled Workers Overseas, and International Education) were extremely low in 2021 (between 1 and 3%).
- Refusal rates in 2022 appear to be [slightly higher](https://immigratemanitoba.com/data/monthly-data-2022/), though there may be some apples-to-oranges problems with comparing the figures between the 2021 annual report and the 2022 monthly numbers.

# Misc

[IRCC 2022 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration](https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2022.html)
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