# Essay 4
# The Big 4

We come across a lot of statistics, news, fake news, sensational news, policy proposals, research, etc. all day every day. However, do we know some very basic ways to analyze them? In this quick piece, I will show you 4 words that will instantly help you take decisions better!

Not just that, any time is as good a time as any to reflect on your past or future new year resolutions. These 4 ideas will also help you set the right direction needed to reach your goals!

### **1. Scientific Temperament**

- This logical mindset embraces curiosity, critical thinking, and evidence to make well-informed judgments in our day to day life, perspectives, and even our goals .
- Just use the "**ASK**" framework: **A**sk questions, **S**eek evidence, **K**eep an open mind.
- To develop this mindset, learn "critical writing" (Google it), and surely write daily, be it a page or just a paragraph!

**Fun tip**: Ask ChatGPT to "engage in Socratic dialogue"!

**Did you know?**
Scientific temper is **a legal necessity**. Article 51A(h) in the Indian constitution says, "*It shall be the duty of every Indian citizen to develop scientific temper, humanism and the spirit of inquiry and reform.*"

### **2. Survivorship Bias**

● It's misjudging and drawing false conclusions from an incomplete set of examples (as they survived some invisible "criteria"), while accidently overlooking those that didn't (as they are no longer visible).
● For instance, some might think being a YouTuber is easy - but they haven't heard of all those who failed. So while evaluating any empirical evidence of a policy, keep this aspect in mind. This is also why you should set goals by seeking advice from a diverse set of people.
● While analyzing, actively fight bias by asking yourself, **"What am I missing?"**

**Case in point**
During WW2, the Allied Forces analyzed their aircrafts that returned from battles. They decided to add extra armour to the most damaged areas, assuming that to increase survival rate. But then a scientist told them that the extra armour should actually be added to the areas with no damage. Why? Because the aircrafts hit in those areas didn't return from battle. So they only saw infront of them the aircrafts that "survived" the battle, which led them to overlook those ones that never returned.

Hence, let's be self-aware of our mind's hidden heuristics and biases that are induced by our limited experiences and prejudices, which will in turn help us analyze objectively without emotions attached.

**Quote in point**
Here's another soft/indirect example of survivorship bias: We try to wear other's shoes to be empathetic, but *arent we missing* to remove our own?

Source: Cubbon Park Metro Station, Bengaluru

**Quick Example**
Let's say that the USA has 12x more drunk-driving accidents than the UK. You might then falsely conclude that the UK is safer.
As facts can be misleading, always question everything. In this case, ask “*What’s the context?*"
*Context*: Pubs in the UK are closer to homes than in the USA, so people just walk instead of driving, leading to less number of on-road cars in the first place. Hence, it's an unfair comparison as the contexts of the numbers (or in a way, surviving "criteria") being compared are different.
-- Also note that this example illustrates a Human Centered Design (or Design Thinking) approach to Urban Planning, as planning for pubs to be relatively nearer to homes (not too near to avoid the ruckus) can help reduce drunk-driving accidents.

**"Fun" Example of Survivorship Bias + Stats:**

Source: https://youtu.be/bVG2OQp6jEQ

### **3. Scatterfocus**

- Against AI/ChatGPT, your creativity wins. Intentionally letting your mind wander, a.k.a. Scatterfocus, leads to new ideas and enhanced self-awareness too.
- This gives time to think innovative solutions to problems, introspect or know yourself, reflect on your goals and past, present, and future scenarios.
- During boring things, like room cleaning, laundry, waiting in line, stuck in traffic, walking to class/metro, don't always use your phone or listen to music/podcasts. Just give the chance to let your mind wander freely :)
- Here's a quick example of creativity with scatter focus from a friend, when your mind is free from any external stimuli: "*When I am at the airport or railway station, I like to come up with different travel stories by observing the type of people taking different flights/trains, the destinations they are going to, imagining the festivals they might be celebrating, etc. It's not for the sake of writing, but just because it’s fun to even think about.*" When was the last time we let our imagination run freely?
- Scroll down for a funtastic poem by Roald Dahl on Technology and Creativity!

### **4. Effective Altruism (EA)**

● The previous ideas will help you think better, but what about the end goal itself?
● EA gives avenues to apply your skills to solve humanity's greatest challenges, be it as a data scientist, policy analyst, or an architect.
● Just visit both the below sites once. Trust me, there's a load of mind-boggling stuff there!
80000hours.org
course.non-trivial.org

## **The Big 4**

1. Develop a **Scientific Temperament**
2. Don't fall for **Survivorship Bias**, fight it.
3. Just **Scatterfocus**!
4. Explore **Effective Altruism** :)

Quickly Google them all to learn more and send this to your friends and family so they can think better and deeper too!

P.S:
- Any thoughts and feedback are welcome any time! Remember: "*Withholding feedback is choosing comfort over growth. Staying silent deprives people of the opportunity to learn.*" - Adam Grant
- Let me know if you want to talk and dive into the above ideas :)
- Television, a poem in the book Charlie and the Chocolate Factory by the famous children's author, Roald Dahl. This too stands tall to this day.